The quiet holiday period produced little by way of economic data, other than a surprise fall in the December Chicago Purchasing Managers Indices (PMI) survey to 42.9, the lowest level since July 2009. Whilst the correlation to the national Institute of Supply Management (ISM) survey has weakened over the past few months, the make-up of the Chicago survey will provide some food for thought for the Fed.

There is a busy week ahead in terms of data releases however, culminating with the release of the latest payroll data (+200K expected).

In addition, heightened tensions in the Middle East on the back of the Saudis’ execution of a Shia cleric has resulted in a spike in crude oil.

Finally, the Chinese Caixin Manufacturing survey recorded 48.2, marking the 10th successive sub-50 reading.

Thanks to our friends at London & Capital