As the year draws to a close, December has continued to bring its own range of macro surprises. Hot on the heels of the ECB’s easing, all eyes this week will be focused on the FED’s potential tightening. Despite recent falls in equity markets, further weakness in commodities and stress in US high yield credits, most economists expect that there is no turning back, and a 0.25% rate rise is highly likely to occur.

On the data front, the US was boosted by underlying retail sales which although looked weak at the headline level,
-0.2% MoM, was stronger across all core measures; core was +0.5% MoM.

Recent figures from China have been mixed. This morning’s retail sales and industrial production figures were stronger-than-expected, whereas export numbers released last week disappointed, falling -6.8% YoY.

In Europe, the preliminary Q3 GDP estimate was as expected at +0.3% QoQ, +1.6% YoY. German industrial production disappointed -0.2% MoM, but France and Italy both grew, up a respectable +0.5% MoM.

In the UK, industrial production rose a modest 0.1% MoM and the Bank of England held rates steady at 0.5%, both as expected.

Thanks to our friends at London & Capital