The Oxford Dictionary defines ”double down ” as:

”(In blackjack) double a bet after seeing one’s initial cards, with the requirement that one additional card be drawn: the amount bet increases when you choose to double down: he doubled down on a pair and lost: to engage in risky behaviour, especially when one is already in a dangerous situation”

The United States of America’s foreign policy, pre 1945, was one of benign political isolation and aggressive trade. After the Second World War, with the creation of the USSR and rise of the iron curtain, it became the champion in the battle for supremacy of political ideals: Communism vs Capitalism. With the fall of the USSR and its form of communism in 1989, America found itself the sole superpower. It had, at that time, the unique opportunity to lay the foundations for international harmony. Instead it perused a policy, led by the Neoconservatives, (the Neocons) known for espousing disdain for communism and for political radicalism, of advocating the promotion of western style democracy and American national interest in international affairs, including by means of military force. In short, jingoism: ”We’ve got the ships, we’ve got the men, we’ve got the money too. ”

The Neocons peaked in influence during the administrations of George W. Bush and George H.W. Bush, when they played a major role in promoting and planning the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Prominent neocons in the Bush administration, included Paul Wolfowitz, John Bolton, Elliott Abrams, Richard Perle, Robert Kagan and Paul Bremer and senior officials, such as Vice President Dick Cheney and Secretary of Defence Donald Rumsfeld, listened closely to neocon advisers regarding foreign policy, especially with regard to the defence of Israel and the promotion of (unsuited) western style democracy in the Middle East.

Where has this policy led us? It has manifested itself in regime change and anarchy in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria and the Ukraine. The devastation of Palestine. The promotion and rise of Al-Qaeda. The rise of ISIS. The largest refugee crises in history, now effecting the borders of Europe, and the promotion of a Sunni vs Shia global fight for supremacy.

What America has done is rid or destabilised the Middle East of all its strong leaders who ruled over stable secular states (they may not have been idyllic but they worked!): Saddam in Iraq, Gadaffi in Libya and now Assad in Syria and replaced them with anarchic, fundamentalist war lords, which a White House spokesman describes as ‘rebels fighting for democracy’.Very much out of  the Star Wars saga.  America has no real strategic plan to bring peace to any of these states and seems to sit by while the whole region descends into chaos. (Rumour has it that the Lebanon may now be drawn into the conflict.) Russia is the only major power that has taken the lead, much to the chagrin of America and Turkey.

Now America has decided to ‘double down’. They have entered into a pact with the Sunni Royal Family of Saudi Arabia, the exporter of  Salafism (also known as Wahhabism) and the root of all fundamentalists, to fight and fund by proxy, as a counter to the influence of Shia Iran and their support of Assad. If the past is a good predictor of the future, what is happening in the Middle East is akin to The Thirty Years War that took place in Europe between 1618 and 1648.

The Thirty Years War was initially a war between Protestant and Catholic (now read: Sunni and Shia) states.It gradually developed into a more general conflict involving most of the great powers of Europe, becoming less about religion and more a continuation of the France–Habsburg (now read: USA/Nato – Russia) rivalry for European (now read: global) political pre-eminence.

The war began when the Holy Roman Empire tried to impose religious uniformity on its domains. The northern Protestant states, angered by the violation of their rights, banded together to form the League of Evangelical Union. The Empire soon crushed this perceived rebellion, but reactions around the Protestant world condemned the Emperor’s action. Sweden soon intervened and began the full-scale Great war on the continent involving Austria, France, Holland, German & Italian Principalities, Poland, Spain and Russia.

The Thirty Years’ War saw the devastation of entire regions, with famine and disease significantly decreasing the population of the German and Italian states, the Kingdom of Bohemia, and the Low Countries. The war also bankrupted most of the combatant powers. Both mercenaries and soldiers were expected to fund themselves by looting or extorting tribute, which imposed severe hardships on the inhabitants of occupied territories. Very much what is happening in the Middle East today.

Is history going to repeat itself. What happened in Europe during that period is very similar to what is happening in the Middle East now. Are we seeing the seeds of a wider conflict between Shia and Sunni developing in the Middle East? Are the powers being sucked into a greater conflict: Russia and Iran on the side of Shias and the USA and Saudi Arabia leading the Sunnis?

Neocons continue to have a great influence in the Obama White House and as such neoconservative ideology has continued as a major factor in American foreign policy. Obama, who has eight months left in office, seems to have washed his hands of the whole affair.